Another strong start for a Joel Silver production after a bit of a rough run. This start is running a bit hotter than Denzel's previous #2 opener, Inside Man, though while this reminds us that Denzel is a true movie star (meaning, he can open movies on his own), it is a concept piece that has the strongest action appeal since Avatar and then Sherlock Holmes opened last month.
it seems like that we'll see a Cloverfield-like trajectory on the film... maybe a little less harsh. Look for a 3-day of just under $30 million... a 4-day of $33m - $35m.
Avatar will lose a day for the third time in its run (opening days for Sherlock and Chippys 2 were the other two), but like the last two times, it looks like a one day long event. Saturday rises have been erratic, in part because of the film playing through the holidays. Last weekend, it went up a crazy 60%, Fri-Sat. Let's say it ends up off 25% for the 3-day... $37.5m for the 3-day... $43m for the 4-day, crossing the $500m domestic threshold on Monday, in 32 days, passing TDK's 45 days to becomes the fastest film to ever hit $500m.
I am personally stunned to say, it now looks like Avatar will pass The Dark Knight's domestic #2 position by the end of next weekend. The film is already over $1 billion overseas. With over $1.5 billion by the end of this weekend, Avatar will be the #2 box office grosser of all time with or without the "3D bump." Sorry haters... another scoreboard to suffer.
Paramount's marketing reboot of The Lovely Bones will show itself more today, as teen girls are the target. Will the movie go up to $7m or $8m today, ending up with a $20m+ 4-day or will it roll with a more traditional trajectory and end up with $17m or so? We shall see.
The Spy Next Door felt a bit dumped... which won't look so good when Sony's The Karate Kid becomes a significant hit this summer. This is one of those cases when the studio should have just waited for another movie to rebrand their star. Jackie Chan and kids will be a real draw after "jacket on... jacket off."
Who would have expected The Blind Side to outgross both Sherlock Holmes and The Squeakquel domestically? It looks like Sherlock will come up just short of $200m and Chippys 2 will just pass the mark.
Up In The Air is a bit confounding. $70m domestic is quite good for a dramedy with a message. But it's, somehow, not exciting. Odd.
Posted by dpoland at January 16, 2010 10:18 AM
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